개인전 점수-진출확률 변환표

듀얼레이스 1 ~ 2020 시즌 1 데이터에 로지스틱 회귀 분석을 사용해 계산한 개인전 50점 선취제 누적 트랙 수 별 점수-진출확률 변환 표. 각 열의 순위는 해당 순위 “이내”를 의미한다. 개인전 방송 켜놓고 참고하기 위해 만듦.

진한 글씨는 각 열 별 50%, 80%, 90%, 95%, 99%를 처음으로 넘는 숫자. 10트랙 이상은 자료 부족.

1트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-1 0.034 0.073 0.179 0.261 0.379
0 0.043 0.094 0.212 0.308 0.438
1 0.055 0.120 0.250 0.359 0.498
2 0.069 0.152 0.292 0.414 0.559
3 0.087 0.191 0.338 0.471 0.618
4 0.109 0.237 0.387 0.528 0.673
5 0.135 0.291 0.438 0.585 0.724
6 0.167 0.350 0.491 0.639 0.770
7 0.204 0.415 0.544 0.691 0.810
8 0.248 0.483 0.596 0.738 0.845
9 0.297 0.552 0.646 0.780 0.874
10 0.351 0.619 0.692 0.817 0.898

2트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-2 0.018 0.029 0.065 0.103 0.181
-1 0.021 0.036 0.080 0.128 0.220
0 0.025 0.045 0.098 0.157 0.265
1 0.030 0.056 0.120 0.192 0.315
2 0.036 0.070 0.145 0.232 0.371
3 0.044 0.087 0.176 0.278 0.429
4 0.052 0.107 0.210 0.328 0.490
5 0.062 0.131 0.250 0.383 0.551
6 0.074 0.160 0.295 0.442 0.611
7 0.088 0.194 0.343 _0.502 0.667
8 0.105 0.232 0.396 0.562 0.719
9 0.124 0.276 0.450 0.620 0.766
10 0.145 0.325 0.506 0.675 0.807
11 0.170 0.378 0.562 0.725 0.843
12 0.198 0.434 0.616 0.770 0.872
13 0.230 0.492 0.668 0.810 0.897
14 0.265 0.549 0.716 0.845 0.918
15 0.303 0.606 0.759 0.874 0.934
16 0.344 0.660 0.798 0.898 0.948
17 0.388 0.710 0.831 0.918 0.959
18 0.433 0.755 0.861 0.934 0.967
19 0.480 0.796 0.885 0.948 0.974
20 0.527 0.831 0.906 0.958 0.980

3트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-3 0.006 0.007 0.015 0.029 0.057
-2 0.007 0.009 0.019 0.037 0.073
-1 0.008 0.012 0.025 0.048 0.093
0 0.010 0.015 0.032 0.061 0.118
1 0.012 0.019 0.041 0.078 0.149
2 0.015 0.024 0.052 0.098 0.186
3 0.018 0.031 0.065 0.124 0.230
4 0.021 0.039 0.082 0.155 0.281
5 0.026 0.049 0.104 0.192 0.338
6 0.031 0.062 0.129 0.236 0.401
7 0.038 0.077 0.160 0.286 0.466
8 0.045 0.096 0.197 0.342 0.533
9 0.054 0.119 0.240 0.402 0.599
10 0.065 0.147 0.289 0.466 0.661
11 0.078 0.180 0.343 0.531 0.718
12 0.093 0.219 0.402 0.595 0.769
13 0.111 0.263 0.463 0.655 0.813
14 0.131 0.312 0.526 0.711 0.851
15 0.155 0.366 0.588 0.762 0.882
16 0.181 0.424 0.647 0.806 0.907
17 0.212 0.484 0.702 0.843 0.927
18 0.246 0.544 0.752 0.875 0.943
19 0.283 0.603 0.796 0.900 0.956
20 0.324 0.659 0.834 0.921 0.966
21 0.368 0.711 0.866 0.938 0.974
22 0.414 0.758 0.892 0.952 0.980
23 0.461 0.799 0.914 0.962 0.984
24 0.509 0.835 0.932 0.971 0.988
25 0.557 0.866 0.946 0.977 0.991
26 0.604 0.892 0.958 0.982 0.993
27 0.649 0.913 0.967 0.986 0.995
28 0.692 0.930 0.974 0.989 0.996
29 0.731 0.944 0.980 0.992 0.997
30 0.768 0.956 0.984 0.994 0.998

4트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-4 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.011 0.015
-3 0.002 0.003 0.006 0.014 0.020
-2 0.003 0.003 0.008 0.017 0.026
-1 0.003 0.004 0.010 0.022 0.034
0 0.004 0.006 0.013 0.028 0.045
1 0.005 0.007 0.016 0.036 0.059
2 0.006 0.009 0.021 0.046 0.076
3 0.007 0.011 0.026 0.058 0.099
4 0.009 0.014 0.033 0.073 0.127
5 0.010 0.018 0.042 0.092 0.162
6 0.012 0.023 0.053 0.115 0.204
7 0.015 0.029 0.067 0.143 0.254
8 0.018 0.037 0.085 0.176 0.312
9 0.022 0.046 0.106 0.215 0.376
10 0.027 0.058 0.132 0.261 0.444
11 0.032 0.072 0.163 0.311 0.515
12 0.039 0.090 0.199 0.367 0.585
13 0.047 0.112 0.242 0.427 0.652
14 0.057 0.138 0.290 0.488 0.714
15 0.068 0.169 0.343 0.551 0.768
16 0.081 0.206 0.401 0.611 0.815
17 0.097 0.248 0.462 0.669 0.854
18 0.115 0.295 0.523 0.721 0.886
19 0.137 0.347 0.585 0.769 0.911
20 0.162 0.404 0.643 0.810 0.932
21 0.190 0.462 0.698 0.845 0.948
22 0.221 0.522 0.747 0.875 0.960
23 0.257 0.582 0.791 0.900 0.970
24 0.295 0.639 0.829 0.920 0.977
25 0.337 0.692 0.861 0.937 0.983
26 0.382 0.741 0.888 0.950 0.987
27 0.429 0.784 0.911 0.961 0.990
28 0.477 0.822 0.929 0.969 0.993
29 0.526 0.854 0.944 0.976 0.994
30 0.574 0.882 0.955 0.981 0.996
31 0.621 0.905 0.965 0.985 0.997
32 0.665 0.923 0.972 0.988 0.998
33 0.707 0.939 0.978 0.991 0.998
34 0.746 0.951 0.983 0.993 0.999
35 0.781 0.961 0.987 0.994 0.999
36 0.812 0.969 0.990 0.996 0.999
37 0.840 0.976 0.992 0.997 0.999
38 0.865 0.981 0.994 0.997 1.000
39 0.886 0.985 0.995 0.998 1.000
40 0.904 0.988 0.996 0.998 1.000

5트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-5 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.005
-4 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.007
-3 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.009
-2 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.012
-1 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.016
0 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.009 0.021
1 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.012 0.028
2 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.016 0.036
3 0.002 0.005 0.008 0.020 0.047
4 0.003 0.006 0.010 0.026 0.061
5 0.004 0.007 0.013 0.034 0.079
6 0.004 0.009 0.017 0.044 0.101
7 0.005 0.012 0.022 0.056 0.129
8 0.007 0.015 0.029 0.072 0.164
9 0.008 0.019 0.037 0.091 0.205
10 0.010 0.024 0.048 0.116 0.253
11 0.012 0.030 0.061 0.145 0.309
12 0.015 0.037 0.078 0.181 0.371
13 0.018 0.046 0.099 0.224 0.437
14 0.022 0.058 0.125 0.273 0.505
15 0.026 0.072 0.157 0.328 0.574
16 0.032 0.089 0.195 0.389 0.639
17 0.039 0.110 0.239 0.453 0.700
18 0.047 0.135 0.290 0.519 0.755
19 0.057 0.164 0.347 0.584 0.802
20 0.068 0.199 0.408 0.646 0.842
21 0.082 0.239 0.473 0.704 0.875
22 0.099 0.284 0.539 0.756 0.902
23 0.118 0.333 0.603 0.801 0.924
24 0.141 0.387 0.664 0.840 0.941
25 0.167 0.443 0.720 0.872 0.955
26 0.197 0.501 0.769 0.899 0.965
27 0.231 0.559 0.813 0.920 0.973
28 0.268 0.616 0.849 0.938 0.980
29 0.309 0.669 0.880 0.951 0.985
30 0.354 0.719 0.905 0.962 0.988
31 0.401 0.763 0.925 0.971 0.991
32 0.450 0.803 0.942 0.977 0.993
33 0.500 0.837 0.954 0.983 0.995
34 0.550 0.866 0.965 0.987 0.996
35 0.599 0.891 0.973 0.990 0.997
36 0.646 0.912 0.979 0.992 0.998
37 0.691 0.929 0.984 0.994 0.998
38 0.732 0.943 0.987 0.995 0.999
39 0.769 0.954 0.990 0.996 0.999
40 0.803 0.963 0.992 0.997 0.999
41 0.833 0.971 0.994 0.998 0.999
42 0.859 0.977 0.996 0.998 1.000
43 0.882 0.981 0.997 0.999 1.000
44 0.901 0.985 0.997 0.999 1.000
45 0.918 0.988 0.998 0.999 1.000
46 0.932 0.991 0.998 0.999 1.000
47 0.943 0.993 0.999 1.000 1.000
48 0.953 0.994 0.999 1.000 1.000
49 0.961 0.995 0.999 1.000 1.000

6트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
-6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
-5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
-4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
-3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
-2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003
-1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.004
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.006
1 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.008
2 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.010
3 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.014
4 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.019
5 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.011 0.025
6 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.014 0.034
7 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.018 0.045
8 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.024 0.060
9 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.031 0.079
10 0.002 0.004 0.009 0.041 0.104
11 0.003 0.006 0.012 0.053 0.135
12 0.003 0.007 0.017 0.069 0.174
13 0.004 0.010 0.023 0.088 0.222
14 0.005 0.013 0.031 0.113 0.278
15 0.006 0.017 0.041 0.144 0.341
16 0.008 0.022 0.055 0.182 0.412
17 0.010 0.028 0.073 0.226 0.486
18 0.012 0.037 0.096 0.278 0.560
19 0.016 0.048 0.126 0.337 0.632
20 0.020 0.061 0.163 0.401 0.699
21 0.025 0.079 0.209 0.469 0.758
22 0.031 0.101 0.264 0.537 0.809
23 0.038 0.128 0.327 0.605 0.851
24 0.048 0.162 0.397 0.669 0.885
25 0.059 0.202 0.472 0.727 0.912
26 0.073 0.249 0.548 0.778 0.933
27 0.090 0.302 0.621 0.822 0.950
28 0.111 0.362 0.690 0.859 0.962
29 0.135 0.427 0.751 0.889 0.972
30 0.164 0.494 0.803 0.913 0.979
31 0.198 0.561 0.847 0.933 0.984
32 0.237 0.626 0.882 0.948 0.988
33 0.281 0.687 0.910 0.960 0.991
34 0.329 0.742 0.932 0.970 0.994
35 0.382 0.790 0.949 0.977 0.995
36 0.437 0.831 0.962 0.982 0.996
37 0.494 0.866 0.972 0.986 0.997
38 0.551 0.894 0.979 0.990 0.998
39 0.606 0.917 0.984 0.992 0.999
40 0.659 0.936 0.988 0.994 0.999
41 0.709 0.950 0.991 0.995 0.999
42 0.754 0.961 0.994 0.997 0.999
43 0.794 0.970 0.995 0.997 1.000
44 0.829 0.977 0.997 0.998 1.000
45 0.859 0.982 0.997 0.998 1.000
46 0.884 0.987 0.998 0.999 1.000
47 0.906 0.990 0.999 0.999 1.000
48 0.923 0.992 0.999 0.999 1.000
49 0.938 0.994 0.999 0.999 1.000

7트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.004
7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.005
8 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.008
9 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.011
10 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.016
11 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.024
12 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.012 0.034
13 0.001 0.001 0.003 0.016 0.049
14 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.023 0.069
15 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.031 0.098
16 0.001 0.003 0.009 0.043 0.136
17 0.002 0.004 0.013 0.059 0.186
18 0.002 0.006 0.018 0.081 0.250
19 0.003 0.008 0.025 0.109 0.326
20 0.004 0.011 0.036 0.146 0.413
21 0.005 0.016 0.050 0.193 0.506
22 0.006 0.021 0.070 0.251 0.598
23 0.008 0.029 0.098 0.319 0.684
24 0.011 0.040 0.134 0.395 0.759
25 0.014 0.054 0.181 0.477 0.821
26 0.018 0.073 0.240 0.560 0.869
27 0.024 0.098 0.311 0.640 0.906
28 0.031 0.130 0.392 0.713 0.934
29 0.040 0.170 0.480 0.776 0.953
30 0.051 0.221 0.569 0.829 0.967
31 0.066 0.281 0.653 0.871 0.977
32 0.084 0.350 0.729 0.904 0.984
33 0.107 0.426 0.794 0.930 0.989
34 0.136 0.505 0.846 0.949 0.993
35 0.171 0.585 0.887 0.963 0.995
36 0.212 0.660 0.918 0.973 0.996
37 0.260 0.728 0.941 0.981 0.998
38 0.315 0.786 0.958 0.986 0.998
39 0.375 0.835 0.970 0.990 0.999
40 0.440 0.875 0.979 0.993 0.999
41 0.506 0.906 0.985 0.995 0.999
42 0.573 0.930 0.990 0.996 1.000
43 0.637 0.948 0.993 0.997 1.000
44 0.696 0.962 0.995 0.998 1.000
45 0.750 0.972 0.996 0.999 1.000
46 0.796 0.980 0.998 0.999 1.000
47 0.836 0.985 0.998 0.999 1.000
48 0.870 0.989 0.999 0.999 1.000
49 0.897 0.992 0.999 1.000 1.000

8트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
11 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.004
12 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.005
13 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.008
14 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.012
15 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.018
16 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.027
17 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.014 0.040
18 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.020 0.058
19 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.028 0.085
20 0.001 0.001 0.009 0.039 0.123
21 0.001 0.002 0.012 0.054 0.173
22 0.001 0.003 0.017 0.074 0.240
23 0.002 0.004 0.024 0.101 0.321
24 0.002 0.005 0.034 0.137 0.415
25 0.003 0.008 0.048 0.184 0.516
26 0.004 0.011 0.066 0.241 0.616
27 0.005 0.016 0.092 0.309 0.706
28 0.007 0.022 0.125 0.387 0.783
29 0.010 0.032 0.169 0.472 0.844
30 0.013 0.045 0.224 0.558 0.891
31 0.017 0.064 0.291 0.640 0.924
32 0.023 0.089 0.369 0.715 0.948
33 0.030 0.124 0.453 0.780 0.965
34 0.040 0.169 0.541 0.833 0.976
35 0.053 0.226 0.626 0.876 0.984
36 0.069 0.296 0.704 0.909 0.989
37 0.090 0.377 0.771 0.934 0.993
38 0.117 0.465 0.827 0.952 0.995
39 0.150 0.556 0.872 0.966 0.997
40 0.190 0.643 0.906 0.975 0.998
41 0.239 0.722 0.932 0.982 0.999
42 0.295 0.789 0.951 0.987 0.999
43 0.359 0.843 0.965 0.991 0.999
44 0.428 0.885 0.975 0.994 1.000
45 0.499 0.917 0.982 0.996 1.000
46 0.571 0.941 0.988 0.997 1.000
47 0.640 0.958 0.991 0.998 1.000
48 0.704 0.971 0.994 0.998 1.000
49 0.760 0.979 0.996 0.999 1.000

9트랙

점수 1위 2위 3위 4위 5위
15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004
20 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.008
21 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.013
22 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.022
23 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.038
24 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.010 0.064
25 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.016 0.106
26 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.027 0.169
27 0.000 0.003 0.012 0.043 0.261
28 0.000 0.004 0.018 0.069 0.379
29 0.000 0.006 0.027 0.108 0.513
30 0.000 0.009 0.042 0.166 0.646
31 0.001 0.013 0.063 0.245 0.759
32 0.001 0.019 0.094 0.348 0.845
33 0.002 0.028 0.139 0.467 0.904
34 0.003 0.041 0.199 0.589 0.942
35 0.004 0.060 0.277 0.702 0.966
36 0.007 0.087 0.372 0.794 0.980
37 0.011 0.125 0.478 0.864 0.988
38 0.017 0.175 0.586 0.912 0.993
39 0.026 0.241 0.686 0.945 0.996
40 0.040 0.322 0.772 0.965 0.998
41 0.060 0.415 0.839 0.979 0.999
42 0.091 0.515 0.890 0.987 0.999
43 0.135 0.613 0.926 0.992 1.000
44 0.196 0.703 0.951 0.995 1.000
45 0.275 0.779 0.967 0.997 1.000
46 0.372 0.841 0.979 0.998 1.000
47 0.480 0.887 0.986 0.999 1.000
48 0.590 0.922 0.991 0.999 1.000
49 0.692 0.946 0.994 1.000 1.000
Written on June 28, 2021